Bad teams and their tailbacks
I like Kevin Smith. I really do. The Lions' second-year back has a lot of the qualities one looks for in a fantasy running back: He's never had a serious injury, he's the unquestioned feature/goal line back on a team that wants to run the ball and he's a decent receiver out of the backfield.
There's one big problem. Smith is on a bad team. Yeah, the Lions will be better this season. Heck, they might even win a game or five. But they still stank. And while the NFL is a total crapshoot, it's safe to say there are some bad teams out there that won't have a winning record.
Fantasy baseball players can overcome their wretched teammates (yes, I'm looking at you Zack Greinke and Mark Reynolds). In fantasy basketball, players' value even rises on bad teams as they get more shots and minutes (see David Lee and O.J. Mayo circa seven months ago).
But football is the ultimate team game. For fantasy running backs, playing for a bad team is a steep mountain to climb. Need proof? Here are some fun facts from Rotoworld's first-class research department.
Over the last 10 seasons, just 19 running backs have managed to be a top-10 fantasy back while their team had a losing record. Here they are, with their fantasy rank at their position:
2008: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2007: Willis McGahee, Ravens (5-11), 8th
2007: Frank Gore, 49ers (5-11), 9th
2006: Frank Gore, 49ers (7-9), 4th
2005: LaMont Jordan, Raiders (4-12 ), 8th
2004: Tiki Barber, Giants (6-10), 2nd
2004: Domanick Davis, Texans (7-9), 5th
2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (4-12), 3rd
2003: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2002: Shaun Alexander, Seahawks (7-9), 5th
2001: Priest Homes, Chiefs (6-10), 2nd
2001: Corey Dillon, Bengals (6-10), 6th
2001: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (5-11), 7th
2001: Ricky Williams, Saints (7-9), 8th
2000: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (7-9), 6th
2000: Ricky Watters, Seahawks (6-10), 8th
2000: Charlie Garner, 49ers (6-10), 9th
1999: Charlie Garner, 49ers (4-12), 7th1999: Duce Staley, Eagles (5-11), 10th
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Think about that for a second. Out of all the losing teams since 1999, just 19 of their running backs have emerged from the depths of sucksville to be a fantasy star. That's 19 percent of the total backs to reach top-10 status at the position, or 19 out of 100.
Over the last 10 seasons, just six running backs (12 percent) have managed to be a top-5 fantasy back while their team had a losing record.
This stat shouldn't make you blindly pass on Maurice Jones-Drew or Steven Jackson. They are studs who are the entire offense for their teams. Gore is a great example of an exception because he finished fourth among backs in 2006 as the Niners went 7-9. But just know by taking these guys you're spitting in the face of history, and Walter Sobchak didn't watch his buddies die face down in the muck so you could do that.
The overall team record for the top-10 fantasy running backs over the last 10 seasons is 924-675-1 (.578%).
The overall team record for the top-5 fantasy running backs over the last 10 years is 492-308 (.615%).
You don't have to be Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind" to understand why these stats make sense. Good teams have the ball more and they're closer to the goal line more. Good teams have passing games that prevent eight men from being in the box, they're protecting leads by running and they have strong offensive lines.
So if you have a close decision involving one of the following guys, history tells us to steer clear of the losers:
Kevin Smith, Lions
If his ADP was a little lower, it would be easier to take the back for the worst team in the league that is expected to have a rookie quarterback. But at No. 30 overall, give me Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas before I take the plunge on Smith.
Jamal Lewis, Browns
It's not just that he's going to be 30 years old by Week 1 and has a ton of wear on his body. This Browns team is bad and there's no upside for Lewis to improve on last year's numbers. If I'm taking a running back in the eighth round, I'm taking a flier on someone like Ahmad Bradshaw or Ray Rice before Lewis.
Thomas Jones, Jets
Assuming the Jets aren't able to trade him - which is a big assumption at this point – Jones' ADP is way too high. Forget that the Jets drafted his replacement in Shonn Greene and Leon Washington's role seems to grow by the day. Jones is going to consistently see eight men in the box with Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens under center. If Brett Favre was good for anything last year, it was the threat of going deep.
I like Kevin Smith. I really do. The Lions' second-year back has a lot of the qualities one looks for in a fantasy running back: He's never had a serious injury, he's the unquestioned feature/goal line back on a team that wants to run the ball and he's a decent receiver out of the backfield.
There's one big problem. Smith is on a bad team. Yeah, the Lions will be better this season. Heck, they might even win a game or five. But they still stank. And while the NFL is a total crapshoot, it's safe to say there are some bad teams out there that won't have a winning record.
Fantasy baseball players can overcome their wretched teammates (yes, I'm looking at you Zack Greinke and Mark Reynolds). In fantasy basketball, players' value even rises on bad teams as they get more shots and minutes (see David Lee and O.J. Mayo circa seven months ago).
But football is the ultimate team game. For fantasy running backs, playing for a bad team is a steep mountain to climb. Need proof? Here are some fun facts from Rotoworld's first-class research department.
Over the last 10 seasons, just 19 running backs have managed to be a top-10 fantasy back while their team had a losing record. Here they are, with their fantasy rank at their position:
2008: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2007: Willis McGahee, Ravens (5-11), 8th
2007: Frank Gore, 49ers (5-11), 9th
2006: Frank Gore, 49ers (7-9), 4th
2005: LaMont Jordan, Raiders (4-12 ), 8th
2004: Tiki Barber, Giants (6-10), 2nd
2004: Domanick Davis, Texans (7-9), 5th
2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (4-12), 3rd
2003: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2002: Shaun Alexander, Seahawks (7-9), 5th
2001: Priest Homes, Chiefs (6-10), 2nd
2001: Corey Dillon, Bengals (6-10), 6th
2001: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (5-11), 7th
2001: Ricky Williams, Saints (7-9), 8th
2000: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (7-9), 6th
2000: Ricky Watters, Seahawks (6-10), 8th
2000: Charlie Garner, 49ers (6-10), 9th
1999: Charlie Garner, 49ers (4-12), 7th1999: Duce Staley, Eagles (5-11), 10th
</PRE>
Think about that for a second. Out of all the losing teams since 1999, just 19 of their running backs have emerged from the depths of sucksville to be a fantasy star. That's 19 percent of the total backs to reach top-10 status at the position, or 19 out of 100.
Over the last 10 seasons, just six running backs (12 percent) have managed to be a top-5 fantasy back while their team had a losing record.
This stat shouldn't make you blindly pass on Maurice Jones-Drew or Steven Jackson. They are studs who are the entire offense for their teams. Gore is a great example of an exception because he finished fourth among backs in 2006 as the Niners went 7-9. But just know by taking these guys you're spitting in the face of history, and Walter Sobchak didn't watch his buddies die face down in the muck so you could do that.
The overall team record for the top-10 fantasy running backs over the last 10 seasons is 924-675-1 (.578%).
The overall team record for the top-5 fantasy running backs over the last 10 years is 492-308 (.615%).
You don't have to be Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind" to understand why these stats make sense. Good teams have the ball more and they're closer to the goal line more. Good teams have passing games that prevent eight men from being in the box, they're protecting leads by running and they have strong offensive lines.
So if you have a close decision involving one of the following guys, history tells us to steer clear of the losers:
Kevin Smith, Lions
If his ADP was a little lower, it would be easier to take the back for the worst team in the league that is expected to have a rookie quarterback. But at No. 30 overall, give me Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas before I take the plunge on Smith.
Jamal Lewis, Browns
It's not just that he's going to be 30 years old by Week 1 and has a ton of wear on his body. This Browns team is bad and there's no upside for Lewis to improve on last year's numbers. If I'm taking a running back in the eighth round, I'm taking a flier on someone like Ahmad Bradshaw or Ray Rice before Lewis.
Thomas Jones, Jets
Assuming the Jets aren't able to trade him - which is a big assumption at this point – Jones' ADP is way too high. Forget that the Jets drafted his replacement in Shonn Greene and Leon Washington's role seems to grow by the day. Jones is going to consistently see eight men in the box with Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens under center. If Brett Favre was good for anything last year, it was the threat of going deep.
